Monday, June 16, 2008

1,575 hands, $301 profit

Just a quickie here. Had another ridiculous day, and had it not been for a few spewy bluffs in the last 10 minutes or so of my session it would have been a $400 day instead. A few hands:

WOW this was up against a reg too. I planned on calling for set value but also to make a few moves/floats etc on favourable boards. Couldn't believe how light he stacked there...

Pretty standard.

Thank you Mr. Spewtard.

Unfortunately I didn't have the read on this guy that I got about a dozen hands later; he was a maniac. His stats at the time suggested he was something close to a tag, and I think my line was pretty standard against a tag or an unknown.

Obviously didn't pin him on an overfull :p I think he shows up with a bluff or a weak pair here a lot of the time and although I overbet some, I stand by my shove. Good FE + decent equity when called. I don't mind it.

One of the late bluffs that I really didn't like. First off I want to fool with some PT3 filters and see just how profitable (if at all) calling a 3bet with a pair is when we have certain stack sizes. Obviously 100 or fewer BBs deep it will be a loser long-term, but I'm curious about 120, 140, 160 and up. Postflop was just spew obviously. He'd been really squeezy/3bet lighty (yeah I'm making up words now), hence my aggression in the hand.

Another late-game bluff. I think the bluff is fine, but the player I chose to do it against was terrible. This is one of my bigger leaks, and I've mentioned it before: thinking my opponents are observant and tricky enough to make moves in spots like those. In reality they're just playing their hands for face value and usually aren't bluffing me. Especially not the 12/6 players.

And that last one against my buddy Jagsti. I think he's smart enough to know that a)he isn't getting set mining odds pf and b) my range is very tight for a 3bet vs a 12/7's utg raise, so basically his range is QQ+/AK there. Off the top of my head I think we're seeing AK more often than KK and QQ (unpaired hands are much more likely when we're looking at it combo-wise), but since I have two aces in my hand, we might actually see QQ more often, and therefore the ideal line might be to actually check behind that flop to either induce 'bluffs' from QQ, or to convince him that his hand might be best and coax him into a call.

Looking at the situation in stoxpoker combolator, we're looking at AK and QQ %37.5 of the time each, trip kings %18.75 of the time and AA %6.25 of the time. I guess that means betting is fine. Even if he folds QQ %100 of the time, that means he'll still have top pair the majority of the time, and won't ever fold it, so betting is probably still the ideal line.

Hm, 'quickie' my ass. You know me, I like to rant. Anyways, good day, 3BI up, and I'm just killing it this month. At about $2,000 in profits after 19k hands. Going to crack 30k easily and should see some more nice profits along with it. bw, vanq, zach - chin up and keep on that grind. You guys know you can profit, just keep plugging away. Hell, if I can win then you can too :)


lightning36 said...

You must have balls of steel to play those ducks the way you did.

Keep up the good streak!

Zach said...

One comment, you say:

"I think he's smart enough to know that a)he isn't getting set mining odds pf and b) my range is very tight for a 3bet vs a 12/7's utg raise"

But if we look at the odds he's actually getting, he has 4 committed and there is $1.50 more in the pot. He has to call 9 (4 to 13). Effective stacks after the call are 88.60. So he's calling 9 to win 4+1.50+4+88.60 = 10.9:1. Remember that 7.5:1 is the odds of hitting a set but we need better than that because of set over sets. Therefore ESPECIALLY if your second statement: "my range is very tight for a 3bet vs a 12/7's utg raise" is true, he's getting odds, sort of.

Only problem is that you could have AK and not pay him off when he sets or you could have KK and not pay him off when an A comes. I'll actually make that play a good deal, but only in position, and preferably with slightly deeper stacks. If you can make up for the missed value of sets vs. AK UI and KK with an A on it by getting folds out of these hands when you don't set, I think those calls aren't too bad. But he is oop and I think you're right, set mining there would be a losing play. Just something I've been thinking about and you showed the perfect example :).

Anyway keep it up.

Bombjack said...

Eek! The AK and 22 hands made me cringe. Raising 22 UTG just isn't a winning play - I tend to just fold it, or limp if the game's passive. As for calling a re-pot with T7o - you know better than that! The others look OK. Don't worry about not getting value on the AA hand - it looks fine.